We need an energy system perspective when addressing the decarbonisation of the heating and cooling sector, writes Aurélie Beauvais. The managing director of Euroheat & Power explains why.

The last few years have marked a turning point in European energy and climate policies. The presentation of the European Green Deal in 2019 introduced a record number of new climate-related initiatives, for a single European political mandate.

Five years later, the Fit For 55 package sets out a clear framework for reducing CO2 emissions by 2030, and puts the continent on track to achieving climate-neutrality by 2050. This legislative package is a beacon of hope, ratifying a number of ambitious targets for the deployment of renewable energies, improving the energy performance of buildings, and extending the emissions trading scheme to the crucial buildings sector.

However, we cannot rest on our laurels just yet.

The Ukrainian crisis was the wake up call we needed to finally grasp the urgency of reducing Europe’s dependence on fossil fuels, and address the decarbonisation of our heating and cooling sector. Today, space and water heating account for nearly a third of final energy demand in the European Union and over 75% of this heat still comes from fossil fuels.

In the past years, the European energy transition strategy relied to a large extent on deploying new renewable electricity sources, and fostering energy efficiency measures in industry and buildings. Although necessary, these measures are not enough to tackle the much-needed decarbonisation of the European heating and cooling sector.

Accelerating the heating and cooling transition is no easy task. It is a highly sensitive and complex policy area, touching the very heart of European citizens’ lives: the possibility for families to keep warm in winter, the comfort of a hot bath after a hard day’s work, the industries’ ability to produce and create jobs. We have all witnessed the panic of European policy makers last winter, when the risk emerged that our heat supply could be disrupted or become unaffordable for most of our most vulnerable citizens.

Sensitive, indeed, but also challenging. The heating and cooling energy demand is not just “any” energy demand. It has specific characteristics, which complexify greatly the design of successful heat decarbonisation policies.

The European heating and cooling demand is not only huge, is also intrinsically seasonal (peaking in summer and winter), and greatly weather dependent. To de-fossilise heating we need immense volumes of dispatchable, flexible, and affordable renewable and clean heat sources.

In this context, there are major shortcomings to addressing heating and cooling decarbonisation only through the prism of renewable-based electrification and energy efficiency.

First, is likely to put a stronger pressure on our electricity system, marked by an increasing gap between growing shares of variable electricity sources, and a critical under-investment in storage and flexibility sources, as well as energy infrastructures.

The additional pressure on our electricity system is also driven by the electrification of key sectors such as transport, industries, and the EU’s ambitions for green hydrogen.

Second, it overshadows the incredible potential of renewable and excess heat sources in Europe, which can be a decisive asset to complement the deployment of renewable electricity sources in heating, reducing electricity peaks in winter and supporting a more resilient energy system.

We need an energy system perspective, when addressing the decarbonisation of our largest energy consuming sector.

The potential for renewable and excess heat sources in Europe is significant. An ongoing initiative report from the European parliament on geothermal energy points out the significant potential of deploying geothermal resources, not only to accelerate heat decarbonisation in key countries (such as France and Germany) but also to drive a fairer heat transition for central and eastern European countries.

Poland, Germany, Hungary, Bulgaria, Slovakia and Romania have the highest untapped resources. Solar thermal capacities are not to be outdone, and could triple by 2030, reaching 120GW of installed capacity.

Excess heat is another critical clean heat resource. A recent study found that urban waste heat only could meet 14% of the European heat demand for buildings, with the most significant resources coming from wastewater treatment plants (42%), data centers (23%), service sector buildings (19%), and residential buildings (9%).

How do we tap into this potential? This is where district heating and cooling comes into play.

It is a powerful solution to replace fossil-based heating in buildings and industries, harnessing the potential of renewable and recovered heat sources, as well as seasonal heat storage installations. With 41,3% of its energy supply coming from renewables and climate-neutral heat sources , district heating and cooling supplies more than 67 million EU citizens today and could supply more than 20% of Europe’s heat demand by 2030 compared to 12% today.

However, rolling out new heating and cooling networks and modernising existing infrastructures will require clear and ambitious EU regulations as well as significant investment.  

We all know the Chinese proverb: “the best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago, the second best time is now”. With a new political mandate on the horizon, the EU is preparing to continue its decarbonisation efforts right up to the next major milestone: 2040.

The next decade must be the one of heating and cooling decarbonisation, it has become a climate and energy security imperative.

This article was originally published on Power Engineering International